Israel and Iran are now on the brink of igniting a broader regional conflict in the Middle East.
On Tuesday, Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile strike in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week, following the July 31 killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The barrage of 180 missiles caused no casualties, as most were intercepted, according to reports from the Israeli military. Iran claimed it had aimed at three military bases near Tel Aviv.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu swiftly vowed to retaliate, stating that Iran had “made a big mistake and will pay.” The United States voiced strong support for its ally.
“Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel,” President Joe Biden said from the White House, adding that he was in talks about a response to the attack.
How will Israel respond to Iran?
The region remains on edge, awaiting whether Israel will opt for de-escalation or pursue a confrontation with its longstanding adversary, supported by the United States.
Marc Owen Jones, an analyst at Northwestern University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that while Iran’s attack was carefully designed to avoid escalation, Israel’s response remains “unpredictable.”
According to Jones, Iran’s strike on Tuesday aimed to restore some deterrence, as Tehran could no longer afford to appear “weak” in response to Israeli attacks on its regional allies.
However, reports indicate that Israel was alerted to the incoming attack by the US in time to intercept the missiles and drones. As a result, Iran’s use of advanced weaponry should be viewed as a “symbolic effort,” he added.
Given the minimal damage from the attack, Israel may choose a limited response, similar to its actions in April when Iran executed its first-ever strike on Israeli territory.
In retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Damascus, Iran launched around 120 ballistic missiles and 170 drones on April 13, causing minor damage to a military base in southern Israel. A few days later, on April 18, Israel targeted the Artesh air force base in Isfahan, destroying part of an S-300 long-range air defense system.
While the attack did little to diminish Iran’s military capabilities, its precision served as an implicit threat while avoiding further escalation.
However, this time, the scale and nature of Iran’s assault—especially the use of ballistic missiles, many of which bypassed Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system—indicate that Israel’s response will need to be “much harsher” than in April to establish its own deterrence, according to Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.
In April, Israel conducted strikes on Iranian targets from outside Iranian airspace. Krieg predicted that this time, Israel would deploy its fighter jets into Iranian airspace to attack military sites.
If Israel opts for a significant escalation, it could signify a shift away from decades of proxy warfare, potentially drawing Iranian forces into a direct confrontation with Israel and its primary ally, the US, cautioned Owen Jones.
“The West is attributing the escalation to Iran,” he stated. “This benefits Israel by enabling it to rally coalition support against Iran while diverting attention from its actions in Gaza.”
What targets could Israel strike?
According to public statements from Israeli officials, all options remain on the table. This could involve strikes on nuclear and oil production facilities, targeted assassinations of members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and precision raids on military assets.
Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari emphasized that Israel will respond “wherever, whenever, and however we choose.” Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has called for a decisive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
“We must act now to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program, target its central energy facilities, and severely weaken this terrorist regime,” Bennett stated on X following Iran’s missile barrage. “We have the justification and the tools. With Hezbollah and Hamas currently incapacitated, Iran is now vulnerable.”
The Natanz uranium enrichment complex and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre are critical sites within Iran’s nuclear program. Isfahan, where Israel responded in April, is also home to several significant facilities, including military companies.
However, targeting Iranian nuclear sites in response to an attack that caused minimal damage could be seen as disproportionate. Such an action might also backfire, prompting Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program in order to deter future strikes on its territory.
On Wednesday, Biden stated that he would not endorse an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Krieg from King’s College further noted that most of Iran’s nuclear sites are situated deep underground, beneath mountainous terrain. “These are not easily accessible for Israel from the air,” he told Al Jazeera.
Oil fields, which are more exposed and less fortified than the heavily secured nuclear sites, could serve as alternative military targets. Striking Iran’s profitable oil sector amid increasing public pressure on Iranian authorities due to the country’s dire economic situation could also benefit Israel politically. However, Krieg expressed uncertainty about whether Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities would be viewed as justified by the global community, considering the nature of Iran’s military actions on Tuesday.
Iranian naval bases and assets belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are also potential targets for Israel. In addition to Tehran, the port city of Bandar-e Bushehr, which hosts significant energy infrastructure and Iranian naval facilities, is a crucial hub.
Tel Aviv may also continue its series of targeted assassinations by going after Iranian leaders, similar to its actions against Hezbollah, Iran’s most heavily armed and well-equipped ally in the region. Following the Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah’s Nasrallah in Beirut last week, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was moved to a secure location within Iran amid heightened security, according to a Reuters report.
The news agency noted that Iran is concerned about potential infiltration by Israeli agents, including Iranians allegedly on Israel’s payroll, and is conducting a thorough investigation of personnel among mid- and high-ranking members of the IRGC.
For its part, Iran, cautious about escalating into a larger conflict, has issued warnings to Israel against retaliation.
Iran’s armed forces joint chief of staff, General Mohammad Bagheri, stated that the IRGC is prepared to carry out another missile attack with “increased intensity” if Israel retaliates against its territory.
“If the Zionist regime, which has gone mad, is not restrained by America and Europe and continues such acts or any aggression against our sovereignty or territorial integrity, [Tuesday’s] operation will be repeated with much greater force, targeting all their infrastructure,” he warned.
Bagheri also cautioned that while Iran has refrained from targeting Israeli civilians thus far, such actions would be “entirely feasible.”
